Enterprises struggle to test AI forecasts in real-world conditions, so startups are using prediction markets as a live sanity check. Augur lets companies spin up private markets where employees trade on AI-generated predictions to catch model flaws before they cause costly errors. It monetizes through tiered SaaS plans, transaction fees on public markets, and a data API for aggregated market sentiment.

The article reviews Kalshi’s inaugural research conference, showing prediction markets expanding beyond elections and sports into macro, political, and corporate hedging. It explains how direct event benchmarks simplify institutional hedging, maps the three-stage adoption process, and highlights collateral requirements and regulatory steps as key hurdles.

A trader on Polymarket made a $400,000 profit by betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture shortly before the U.S. operation was announced, raising questions about potential insider trading. Experts are divided on whether the trader had access to classified information, highlighting the regulatory challenges in monitoring prediction markets compared to traditional financial markets. Concerns about political connections, particularly with the Trump administration, further complicate oversight and enforcement of insider trading rules.