A trader on Polymarket made a $400,000 profit by betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture shortly before the U.S. operation was announced, raising questions about potential insider trading. Experts are divided on whether the trader had access to classified information, highlighting the regulatory challenges in monitoring prediction markets compared to traditional financial markets. Concerns about political connections, particularly with the Trump administration, further complicate oversight and enforcement of insider trading rules.

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction markets platform, has received approval from the CFTC to operate in the United States. The ruling follows a no-action letter regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations, paving the way for Polymarket's entry after a prior federal investigation was dropped.

Polymarket is planning to return to the U.S. after acquiring QCEX, enabling American users to trade prediction market contracts with regulatory compliance. The platform gained popularity during the 2024 presidential election but had been restricted from operating in the U.S. for several years. CEO Shayne Coplan emphasized the goal of becoming a fully regulated platform, potentially impacting the U.S. sports betting landscape.

Polymarket is set to raise $200 million in a new funding round that will value the platform at $1 billion, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Despite facing regulatory challenges that resulted in banning US customers, Polymarket has maintained significant activity, particularly during the 2024 US presidential election, and is expanding its offerings through a partnership with Elon Musk's social network, X. The platform's cumulative betting volume is approaching $14.8 billion, with a notable decrease in user activity recently.