At the start of his second term, Trump’s team swung from threats of total war against Iran to signing a “Memorandum of Understanding” that punts on nuclear weapons, hands Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz and frees up roughly $300 billion in reconstruction funds. What looked like brinkmanship turned into an astonishing backtrack: regime change talk gave way to treating Iran’s government as a reasonable partner. Israel’s leaders cried foul as they watched Trump undercut their interests in Lebanon, but this flip-flop is classic Trump—loud threats followed by sudden withdrawal. Behind the scenes, nothing about this administration’s approach makes sense if you expect consistency. Attempts to impose a rational model—“4D chess” and the like—fail because Trump’s positions shift on a whim. He set out demanding Iran’s collapse, then walked away when the war machine didn’t bend to his will. Opponents in Tehran harden their stance as the U.S. wavers, leaving negotiations dangling and credibility shredded. Ultimately, this plays out like one of Trump’s real-estate fiascos: big promises, public feuds, hair-raising threats, then a quick exit that leaves partners with a half-broken deal and no leverage. He doesn’t pursue coherent strategy or any “civilizational” plan. He just hustles for headlines—then vanishes, leaving messes and bigger suckers in his wake.