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Goldman Sachs data show that tech stocks have gone from trading at a hefty premium to roughly matching 2018 levels. As of early April, software and tech earnings carry only a 25% premium over the broader market—down sharply from a year ago—yet earnings forecasts keep climbing. In fact, analysts have raised 2026 estimates for tech by more than any other sector: U.S. IT earnings growth expectations jumped from 31% in January to 43.4% by April, compared with just 18.7% for the overall market. Even insider buying in firms tracked by the XLK ETF hit a 15-year high, suggesting management teams are backing their own shares despite falling multiples.
In a separate analysis, four leading AI models were asked to weigh in on about 50 recent proxy fights, and they sided with activist shareholders roughly 45% of the time—outpacing traditional proxy advisers ISS (36%) and Glass Lewis (42%). Yet real-world shareholder votes favor activists only about 14% of the time, with companies winning 59% of contests. That disconnect reflects the sway of the “Big Three” asset managers—BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street—who together control roughly 22% of each S&P 500 stock and often vote against dissidents even when advisers say otherwise. Still, moves like JPMorgan Asset Management ditching external advisers for its own AI-driven Proxy IQ platform suggest that system could shift.
Measuring real AI impact beyond hype remains tricky, but surveys hint at a growing crop of quantifiable gains. Morgan Stanley’s latest poll finds 37% of respondents reporting measurable benefits from AI—up 23% quarter-over-quarter—with productivity improvements and clear financial ROI leading the pack. Financial services, real estate and tech sectors saw the biggest upticks in these reports, and within industries, household products, telecom and banking firms dominate. As companies pour capital into AI, more boards and investors will demand hard data on returns—and those numbers seem to be edging into view.
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