More on the topic...
Generating detailed summary...
Failed to generate summary. Please try again.
Training and serving cutting-edge language models is getting pricier and less profitable. GPT-3 cost about $55 million to build and generated $200 million in revenue over a 30-month window, netting 3.6× returns. By contrast, GPT-4.5’s $5.3 billion total cost produced $3.9 billion in revenue before being overtaken in five months—a 0.7× recovery. Inference bills now dwarf training costs; OpenAI spent more on inference in 2024 than it earned. Each new model lives at the frontier for a shorter time, with margins eroding under GPU-heavy usage and collapsing API prices.
To escape that trap, labs won’t just sell tokens—they’ll build discovery engines. The first frontier is science. AI-driven drug discovery slashes R&D costs by 25–40% and accelerates timelines by 30–40%, saving up to $1 billion per drug and cutting failure rates in half. A typical FDA-approved drug brings in $6.7 billion over its lifetime; Keytruda hit $31.7 billion in 2025 alone. Companies like Isomorphic Labs and Google’s Gemini Deep Think are already running AI-led design and publishing papers without human co-authors. Those discoveries retain value long after the underlying model is outdated.
The second frontier is physical instrumentation. OpenAI and Ginkgo Bioworks ran 36,000 cell-free protein synthesis reactions, cutting protein production costs by 40% through iterative lab-model loops. DeepMind’s UK materials lab synthesizes hundreds of new compounds daily, creating data no competitor can replicate. Owning both the strongest closed-door models and the instruments that generate proprietary data creates two reinforcing flywheels: better models drive better research, and unique data feeds back into model improvements. That dual approach, not token sales, is where lasting value lies.
Questions about this article
No questions yet.